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AJAX and Microsoft's Atlas To Dominate the Shape of i-Technology

Informal Survey Concludes This Will Be A Vintage Year for Software Development

J.P. Morgenthal, managing partner for the IT consultancy Avorcor and the author of Enterprise Information Integration: A Pragmatic Approach, is as usual very forthright in his foresight.

J.P. MORGENTHAL
VPMNs, AJAX, VoIP Phones, SaaS, Semantic Technologies

  1. Private mail networks: With people getting slammed I believe we will see the rise of VPMN (Virtual Private Mail Networks). Essentially, these are analogous to VPNs, allowing private network traffic to run over the public backbone. They use common SMTP protocols to deliver mail, but unless you have permission to send mail to the recipient the mail will be rejected.
  2. AJAX: We will see the rise of even stronger support for more powerful portable client-based applications based on Web protocols.
  3. Composite applications: With the rise of SOA and BPM, it's going to get even easier to develop applications that require less low-level coding skills and that are more flexible and can respond faster to changes in business.
  4. VoIP phones: Advancements and growth in high bandwidth wireless networking means that wireless devices will be IP addressable, which means that the next wave of phones will leverage the public Internet for phone communications and common WAN/LAN. Windows CE and Palm devices will be able to provide voice services. Gone are the days of buying a phone dedicated to a single network provider.
  5. Self-publishing: Garth Brooks and Wal-Mart, LuLu, MusikMafia. These names all represent a rise in successful self-publishing. Books, magazines, and music are all media that are being self-published over the Internet. Soon, this will be expanding to software as Software as a Service (SaaS) becomes more popular.
  6. Metadata: Metadata is finally being recognized as a critical enterprise asset. It's now being managed properly and leveraged for its properties for automation.
  7. Semantic technologies: People and organizations are finally starting to see the value in being able to describe data in context and defining the relationships between data. Semantic technologies enhance and extend the basic power realized by relational database technologies to data anywhere in the world.
JDJ's enterprise editor, Yakov Fain, has 10 predictions, several of them directly involving Java.

YAKOV FAIN
Java 5.1, AJAX, "CSMB," Outsourcing, Yahoo!

  1. Enterprises will finally start using Java 5. The sooner the 5.1 version is released the better.
  2. AJAX hype will calm down. AJAX is an interesting technology and will become one of many techniques used in Web application development. Nothing more.
  3. Fat clients will be more widely used in distributed enterprise applications. Java still has a chance to be used in this area, if someone will create an IDE with an easy-to-use and powerful Swing GUI designer. JDeveloper and NetBeans are leading here. Adobe (formerly Macromedia) tools will become more and more popular.
  4. Smart development managers will start creating mixed open source/commercial environments. For example, you can use open source J2EE servers in Dev and QA and their commercial counterparts in Prod and Contingency environments. The same is applicable to DBMS, messaging, et al. Some open source vendors are already moving in this direction by creating products that are 100% compatible with particular commercial tools.
  5. A new software architecture for small and mid-size businesses should arise. IMHO a good candidate is what I call "Client/Server Message Bus" (CSMB): a set of client/server applications can talk to each other using open source messaging and an enterprise service bus. Note: Client/server applications can have more than two tiers, e.g., RMI client, RMI Server and DBMS.
  6. Programming will become the trade of the younger generation. Middle-age programmers will be leaving the coding arena and moving to business analysis and management. You can't beat a 25-year-old Indian programmer who's ready to join any project tomorrow (in any place on Earth), sharing a room in so-called guest apartment. The code quality of such a programmer may not be as good as was expected by the employer, but this will be a little secret for some time, and smart kids will have enough time to learn how to program on the job.
  7. A number of CIOs will come out of the closet and publicly admit that the real cost of outsourced projects is high, because for every two young Indian programmers, you need a local business analyst who will write super-detailed functional specifications and validate their work. But outsourcing is here to stay (at least in the US) and not because overseas programmers charge less, but because just finding local programmers will become a difficult task.
  8. Yahoo! will come up with some new innovative Web products that will be able to compete with Google's software. If not Yahoo!, who else?
  9. By the end of the year the broadband Internet will give DSL and cable Internet a run for its money. The wireless companies just need to cut the prices of their broadband service, and the masses will start leaving their "traditional" ISPs.
  10. Java use will steadily increase despite the fact that various replacements are being offered. Java is more than an excellent object-oriented language enriched by tons of productivity libraries (networking, multi-threading, security, etc.). It's a mature and proven platform for development of all kinds of applications for all kinds of hardware. Java in programming plays the same role as English in the real world: no one says that the Italian language will replace English any time soon; on the other hand, songs in Italian sound great.
Peter Zadrozny, StrongMail's CTO, naturally has some e-mail predictions:

PETER ZADROZNY
Spam/Phishing, AJAX, PHP, JEE, and SOA

  1. E-mail will be re-engineered to stop spam and phishing, so it will help legitimate businesses better utilize the channel for secure communications such as statements, purchase orders, customer service, etc.
  2. As part of the e-mail re-engineering effort, every sender will have to implement the authentication standards. Unfortunately, there will still be various authentication standards.
  3. AJAX will be adopted like wildfire.
  4. As PHP becomes more widely adopted as a highly productive, quick and dirty language, more and more people will realize that for serious enterprise-grade, industrial-strength applications, they will have to use Java and JEE.
  5. Service-oriented architecture will continue its very slow and quiet advance in the enterprise. A few years from now everything will be SOA and we won'tt remember how it happened.
Erik C. Thauvin, as befits the author of Erik's Linkblog and owner of Thauvin.net, ranged far and wide in his predictions. They started with combative opinions on RoR and Web 2.0.

ERIK C. THAUVIN
RoR, Web2.0, Open Source Java, IE 7, Google, Yahoo!, spam, VoIP, and WiFi

  1. Ruby (on Rails) and such will still be touted as taking over Java, but in reality will be as insignificant as they are today.
  2. Web 2.0 will solidify its status as a powerful buzzword. A lot of fluff, very little stuff.
  3. Sun will once again dangle the open source carrot as Mustang gets closer to its release date.
  4. The IE 7 rate of adoption will be phenomenal, especially compared to Firefox.
  5. Sixty percent of Google's services will still be in "beta."
  6. Yahoo! will be the first Internet portal to come up with a compelling set of mobile-based services.
  7. No spam salvation. Many will try, all will fail.
  8. VoIP and Wi-Fi will become even more synonymous.
Patrick Hynds, coeditor-in-chief of Information Storage & Security Journal and CTO of Critical Sites, noted that while he doesn't often venture to predict things, he does have enough experience "to hazard some guesses as to what this year will bring relative to the field of security."

PATRICK HYNDS
Rootkits, .NET 2.0, Terror Hacking

  1. Security will continue to be a hot topic and will rise in the priority list of executives (finally) due to the public failures of some big names (still TBD).
  2. Rootkits are already all the rage with the bad guys. 2006 will see the arrival of tools to combat them at the consumer level as spyware and anti-virus packages continue to awaken to this threat.
  3. .NET 2.0 will help developers write more secure code than ever before, but we will continue to be our own worst enemy by subverting good systems with bad practices.
  4. Brute force attacks will become more prolific and password security will take center stage once the code is deemed "secure enough."
  5. We will likely see the first public case of terrorists using hacking to bring down a public utility (whether it is the Internet or the power grid).
"I went out on a limb with that last one," Hynds added, "as it hasn't happened yet (successfully) though I thought it was a good bet back in 2002. Security is a war, don't fight fair. You can be assured that the script kiddies, organized criminals, and terrorists won't."

The last word goes to Quest Software's Tyler Jewell, who has a thought-provoking speculation about Google...

TYLER JEWELL
Web 2.0, "GoogleNet"

"If you are going to be covering the Web 2.0 phenomenon, will you be highlighting the interesting moves that Google is making with buying up dark fiber, massive Internet bandwidths, and building prototype data centers that can be located at various points around the world? When you look at it all, it's possible that Google is building a new Internet, a new ISP offering, new services never before conceived of. It's an interesting concept."

So, let's have your own contributions: e-mail them please to [email protected].

Acknowledgments
Parts of this article were informed by discussions with SYS-CON editors, writers, and columnists, including Sean Rhody, Israel Hilerio, Bill Ray, Mark Hinkle, Rob Gonda, and Dion Hinchliffe.

More Stories By Jeremy Geelan

Jeremy Geelan is Chairman & CEO of the 21st Century Internet Group, Inc. and an Executive Academy Member of the International Academy of Digital Arts & Sciences. Formerly he was President & COO at Cloud Expo, Inc. and Conference Chair of the worldwide Cloud Expo series. He appears regularly at conferences and trade shows, speaking to technology audiences across six continents. You can follow him on twitter: @jg21.

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Most Recent Comments
AJAXWorld News Desk 08/23/06 01:21:00 PM EDT

According to our worldwide network of software development activists, evangelists, and executives, 2006 promises to be a vintage year for software development...with IE7, Atlas, and AJAX featuring prominently.

n d 08/22/06 06:26:21 PM EDT

According to our worldwide network of software development activists, evangelists, and executives, 2006 promises to be a vintage year for software development...with IE7, Atlas, and AJAX featuring prominently.

n d 08/22/06 06:16:06 PM EDT

According to our worldwide network of software development activists, evangelists, and executives, 2006 promises to be a vintage year for software development...with IE7, Atlas, and AJAX featuring prominently.

n d 08/22/06 04:50:53 PM EDT

According to our worldwide network of software development activists, evangelists, and executives, 2006 promises to be a vintage year for software development...with IE7, Atlas, and AJAX featuring prominently.

hemant 03/24/06 08:56:38 AM EST

when am trying to validate a TextBox with a Required Field Validator then the add button that am using to control that TextBox is adding the blank entries in the database without filling the data in TextBox.Also i have checked the validation group for my Textbox and Command Button(Add Button).
kindly help.